Prepping for the Fantasy Football Season: A Statistical Analysis of Linebackers in IDP Leagues

One of the fantasy football leagues I'll be in this year has two flex IDP spots on the roster, meaning any position on the defensive side of the ball. I've been toying with many draft strategies for this league as everyone in it is new to the IDP format. When to draft the top IDPs is one issue to look at, also which positions will be most valuable for consistent scoring, as well as the potential for breakout games. With the depth of defensive players compared to offensive studs, it would seem that waiting on them would be the best option, but that would mean forfeiting the chance to get the top IDPs like Willis, Landry, Berry, Beason, etc. But really, how much more valuable is Patrick Willis, the top IDP on many lists, compared to a player like Derrick Johnson, rated as the 16th best linebacker according to ESPN.com?

First, a look at Willis' stats last year:

101 solo tackles = 101 points

27 assisted tackles = 13.5 points

6 sacks = 18 points

2 forced fumbles = 6 points

5 passes defended = 15 points

for a grand total of 153.5 points.

Now, Johnson's stats last year:

95 solo tackles = 95 points

26 assisted tackles = 13 points

1 sack = 3 points

4 forced fumbles = 12 points

1 fumble recovered = 3 points

1 interception = 3 points

1 def. touchdown = 6 points

16 passes defended = 48 points

for a total of 183 points.

By looking at these stats, I think jumping at the chance to take a big name defensive player would be a mistake because of the small difference in point totals between the top players and the guys who will still be around at the end of the draft. Derrick Johnson is a little bit of a statistical anamoly though, as he has been a turnover machine since his Longhorn days. So let's take a look at Willis next to Barrett Ruud, the 21st linebacker on ESPN's list:

85 solo tackles = 85 points

33 assisted tackles = 16.5 points

2 sacks = 6 points

2 forced fumbles = 6 points

1 interception = 3 points

4 passes defended = 12 points

for a total of 128.5 points.

As can be determined from the numbers, Willis holds only a slight edge over a the 21st best linebacker in the league and in the league I'll be drafting IDPs in, there will probably be no need to drop this far down on the IDP list. Therefore, there doesn't seem to be much merit in jumping at the chance to draft a top ranked IDP early. Drafting depth at running back and wide receiver, and potentially even taking a little higher rated kicker or defense/special teams, would have more value than taking a top ranked IDP.