Week 7 NFL picks

Early picks for the pool, u know the deal.  Turtleneck time imo


Atlanta (+3.5) over DETROIT
Chicago (-1.5) over TAMPA BAY
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Washington
*Denver (+2.5) over MIAMI
San Diego (-1.5) over NY JETS
Seattle (+2.5) over CLEVELAND
Houston (+3.5) over TENNESSEE
*Pittsburgh (-3.5) over ARIZONA
OAKLAND (-3.5) over Kansas City
DALLAS (-12.5) over St. Louis
Green Bay (-8.5) over MINNESOTA
NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Indianapolis
*Baltimore (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Week 6 Power Rankings

Here's my power rankings for Week 6, again, thanks for not reading!

1. Green Bay Packers (5-0) Rodgers is setting the standard for Greatness.
2. New Orleans Saints (4-1) Offense is good enough to overshadow a below avg defense
3. Detroit Lions (5-0) Playing a tough defense this week, only nine td's for Megatron?
4. New England Patriots (4-1) See NO Saints
5. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) Best defense in NFL, Ray Ray gonna Ray Ray
6. Buffalo Bills (4-1) Lets goooooo
7. San Diego Chargers (4-1) Ehh they are doing just enough to win games, I don’t like it
8. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) Playing GREAT D, possibly looking at an all Harbaugh Super Bowl
9. Washington Redskins (3-1) Fucking Shanahan
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) Easy Win this week
11. Houston Texans (3-2) Mario is out :(
12. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) Gained some ground in bye week, I like them to upset New England this week or at least cover.
13. Tennessee Titans (3-2) Ranked too high eff it
14. Oakland Raiders (3-2) Mcfadden's worst game is behind him.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) Fuck the haters, ol' Red gets the job done
16. New York Giants (3-2) had Seattle +9 ½ then changed it right before game time FACKKK
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) Now they are the worst 3-2 team
18. New York Jets (2-3) I don’t even know what to think about these fucking guys
19. Chicago Bears (2-3) The three best running backs in the league are Matt Forte, Matt Forte, and Matt Forte
20. Atlanta Falcons (2-3) I dont like these guys.
21. Cleveland Browns (2-2) Danny “The Insider” Perkins may have actually sold high on Hillis
22. Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) LOL I root for these guys to lose more than I root for Truitt to lose in our league
23. Seattle Seahawks (2-3) whats up, ur still bad
24. Carolina Panthers (1-4) Carolina is Caming on defenses faces, but their defense is no good. Fun to watch these guys, or maybe just THAT guy
25. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) Matt Cassel say's fuck quitting, that shits not balla
26. Minnesota Vikings (1-4) AP would be worked to death if I was calling the plays
27. Denver Broncos (1-4) Tebow should win in Miami, we'll see
28. Arizona Cardinals (1-4) Offense should be much farther along, altho it wont matter when they do come around because their defense will be awful all year.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) no one even cares, go to LA already so people can continue to not care.
30. Indianapolis Colts (0-5) I just feel like they are going to win a few games, they try real hard!
31. St Louis Rams (0-4) Stack 8 in box for rest of season, knock shit out of S-Jack and this team can't beat you.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) Insert Andrew Luck joke.

Early picks Week 6

Caps are home team, * are locks, this are my early picks, few of these are subject to change by sunday, dig?


Buffalo (+3.5) over NY GIANTS
Philadelphia (+0.5) over WASHINGTON
DETROIT (-4.5) over San Francisco
St. Louis (+14.5) over GREEN BAY
Carolina (+4.5) over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI (-7.5) over Indianapolis
*PITTSBURGH (-12.5) over Jacksonville
Houston (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
*OAKLAND (-5.5) over Cleveland
*New Orleans (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY
Dallas (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Minnesota (+2.5) over CHICAGO
NY JETS (-7.5) over Miami

Week 5 Power Rankings

Heres my rankings for week 5, Thanks for not reading!

1. Green Bay Packers (4-0) Took Rodgers w/ the 5^th pick in my FFB draft, this offense seems unstoppable. SHIVA-BOWL-SHUFFLE THO
2. New Orleans Saints (3-1) Their D looks pretty awful, Cam is gonna tear them up this week, but It wont matter because Drew Brees and their offense will continue “raping like Roethlessburger”
3. Detroit Lions (4-0) Team is gonna continue to improve, found a way to win some close games so far this year.
4. New England Patriots (3-1) I don't know if I’ve ever said this, but Tom Brady is DREAMY
5. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) Ray Rice + Ravens Defense = you don’t look forward to playing this team
6. Houston Texans (3-1) This defense is much further along than I would have expected at this point, I don’t expect their offense to slow down too much w/ Andre out, Arian Foster looks like Arian Foster pretty much
7. Buffalo Bills (3-1) I will continue to believe in these guys blindly
8. San Diego Chargers (3-1) Pretty sure I can make a trade for Ryan Mathews on their bye week
9. Tennessee Titans (3-1) This team looks really solid, didn’t they lose to Jacksonville or something tho?
10. New York Giants (3-1) Gonna be 4-1 after this week
11. Washington Redskins (3-1) I hate you Mike Shanahan, gonna try and deal Hightower next week
12. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) They play good D, gonna win a lot of games because of that
13. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) Worst team in Texas, they will get their shit together after this bye week I would like to think
14. Oakland Raiders (2-2) Give the rock to Mcfadden 30 times a game and you may be in the playoffs
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) Worst 3-1 team in league imo, their offense just seems like it could be coached better
16. New York Jets (2-2) Dustin Keller tho? Prob ranked too high
17. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) Got to hope their o-line can take some pressure off of Matty Ice
18. Chicago Bears (2-2) I dont think Jay Cutler checks down to Forte enough, as redic as that sounds.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) Andy Dalton is my Offensive Rookie of the Year thus far, fuck stats, he's trying to get wins
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) How awful are these guys
21. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) What was that nickname for these cats earlier in the year? I already forgot they are real bad
22. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) Larry Fitzy is a Company Man
23. Cleveland Browns (2-2) They beat Miami and Indy, good job guys
24. Carolina Panthers (1-3) Cam Newton looks like a Professional QB
25. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) LOL you guys can't get Andrew Luck if you win games, come on guys
26. Denver Broncos (1-3) Eric Decker is the fucking man. Start putting Tebow in the slot 8 times a game so we dont have to fucking hear these idiots that want to seem him @ QB, Brady Quinn makes Tebow look like a chump I mean come on.
27. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) Colts are gonna jump them after this week, yerp
28. Indianapolis Colts (0-4) Grats on your first win this week Indy. Their Defense is playing with some passion, they are gonna win a few games because of this alone.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) They have put up 39 points this year, thats pretty impressive to be that bad. GIVE THE BALL TO JONES DREW 25+++ TIMES A GAME I DONT FUCKING GET IT!
30. St Louis Rams (0-4) I dont even know where to begin here, what the hell guys
31. Minnesota Vikings (0-4) Hope Ponder is ready to go out there and hand the ball off to AP. I'm ready to see it, and it looks like McNabb wants it to happen aswell.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) Andrew Luck should go ahead and start contract talks w/ these guys

Week 5 NFL picks

Picks for week 5, caps is home team, * are my three locks, these are prob gonna change before sunday, i already dont like some of my picks as i write this.


Seattle (+9.5) over NY GIANTS
*Arizona (+2.5) over MINNESOTA
New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA
BUFFALO (+2.5) over Philadelphia
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over Kansas City
*Cincinnati (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Oakland (+5.5) over HOUSTON
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over Tampa Bay
*NY Jets (+9.5) over NEW ENGLAND
San Diego (-4.5) over DENVER
Green Bay (-5.5) over ATLANTA
DETROIT (-5.5) over Chicago

Week 4 NFL Picks

Again, home teams in CAPS, * are my locks. These picks are for a pool and the lines are set on tuesday.  LETSS GOOO


Detroit (+1.5) over DALLAS
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over San Francisco
CHICAGO (-6.5) over Carolina
Washington (-0.5) over ST. LOUIS
*Buffalo (-3.5) over CINCINNATI
Tennessee (+0.5) over CLEVELAND
*New Orleans (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Minnesota (-1.5) over KANSAS CITY
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
NY Giants (-1.5) over ARIZONA
Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver
New England (-4.5) over OAKLAND
Miami (+7.5) over SAN DIEGO
*BALTIMORE (-3.5) over NY Jets
Indianapolis (+9.5) over TAMPA BAY

Week 3 NFL Picks

Home teams are in caps, and the * are my locks, ALL of these are subject to change before sunday @ noon lol


PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) over NY Giants
Detroit (-3.5) over MINNESOTA
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Houston (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS
New England (-8.5) over BUFFALO
San Francisco (+2.5) over CINCINNATI
Miami (+2.5) over CLEVELAND
*TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver
Baltimore (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS
*OAKLAND (+3.5) over NY Jets
*SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City
Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO
TAMPA BAY (-1.5) over Atlanta
Arizona (-3.5) over SEATTLE
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS (-6.5) over Washington

Week 2 NFL Betting

I hate betting on the NFL during week 1, but week 2 is a different story. After missing on a 5 team parlay but hitting on Stanford and Oklahoma State last night, I'm ready for a big day on the professional gridiron. Here are my picks for today:

3-game parlay

Buffalo -4.5

Dallas -4

Houston -3.5

3-game parlay

Washington -4

Baltimore -7

Tampa Bay +2.5

3-game parlay

Pittsburgh -13.5

Chicago +6

Green Bay -10.5

San Diego/New England under 55.5

Greg Rough Draft - NFL Power Rankings

Preseason is over basicly, I threw together these rankings real fast and put a little comment by each team.  I'm sure we'll have TruGurg Rankings each week, but heres basicly my rough draft of the rankings before week 1.

1. New England Patriots - Tom Brady is still the most handsome man to walk the planet, also there are ZERO holes in this team.
2. Green Bay Packers – GL w/ the repeat in the Shiva Bowl
3. New Orleans Saints – Who dat!
4. Pittsburgh Steelers – blah blah blah
5. Atlanta Falcons – Matty Ice has some nasty weapons, we'll see says the zen master
6. New York Jets – These guys are ranked too high.
7. Philadelphia Eagles – Mike Vick are you going to set records or get injured and play 4 games?
8. Houston Texans – The Most Balanced offense in the NFL, if the Defense can just be AVERAGE this team is going to the AFC championship
9. Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco find out bro
10. San Diego Chargers – They always seem this good
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Leagues leading rusher – LeGarrette Blount....yep
12. Chicago Bears – Everyone hates Jay Cutler I guess
13. Kansas City Chiefs – Will Hold this spot all year
14. Dallas Cowboys – Have talent everywhere, just seems like the Cowboys are going to be spectacularly average this year
15. Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford plays 16 games = Lions in Playoffs
16. New York Giants – NFC East champs?
17. Indianapolis Colts – Without Manning this team is pretty bad, but even if he's back for week 1, the dude has some work to do, gonna take a great year from him to make the playoffs
18. St Louis Rams – I love the direction this team is headed
19. Tennessee Titans – Chris Johnson got paid
20. Arizona Cardinals – Kolb to Fritzgerald ya?
21. Cleveland Browns – Colt McCoy is going to have a fantastic year, tough division tho
22. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jones-Drew is going to have a NASTY year.
23. Minnesota Vikings – mehhhhhhh
24. Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton is the most underrated player in the NFL.
25. San Francisco 49ers – If Alex Smith can learn how to manage a game, they could make the playoffs. Personally I hope Smith bombs and my boy Colin Kaepernick gets his shot this year.
26. Oakland Raiders – “Al Davis setting the standard for bat shit crazy as long as he's been alive” – Tom Augsburger
27. Washington Redskins – I think Tim Hightower could have an amazing season, him and Shanahan may turn the skins into an average team.
28. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton I dont hate you so much anymore. I like the direction this team is going.
29. Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll loves below average QBs
30. Buffalo Bills – Steve Johnson I need you to have an amazing season
31. Miami Dolphins – I've got a feeling they are going to win Andrew Luck, which will make this year not a complete waste of time.
32. Cincinnati Bengals – These guys are just awful

Prepping for the Fantasy Football Season: A Statistical Analysis of Linebackers in IDP Leagues

One of the fantasy football leagues I'll be in this year has two flex IDP spots on the roster, meaning any position on the defensive side of the ball. I've been toying with many draft strategies for this league as everyone in it is new to the IDP format. When to draft the top IDPs is one issue to look at, also which positions will be most valuable for consistent scoring, as well as the potential for breakout games. With the depth of defensive players compared to offensive studs, it would seem that waiting on them would be the best option, but that would mean forfeiting the chance to get the top IDPs like Willis, Landry, Berry, Beason, etc. But really, how much more valuable is Patrick Willis, the top IDP on many lists, compared to a player like Derrick Johnson, rated as the 16th best linebacker according to ESPN.com?

First, a look at Willis' stats last year:

101 solo tackles = 101 points

27 assisted tackles = 13.5 points

6 sacks = 18 points

2 forced fumbles = 6 points

5 passes defended = 15 points

for a grand total of 153.5 points.

Now, Johnson's stats last year:

95 solo tackles = 95 points

26 assisted tackles = 13 points

1 sack = 3 points

4 forced fumbles = 12 points

1 fumble recovered = 3 points

1 interception = 3 points

1 def. touchdown = 6 points

16 passes defended = 48 points

for a total of 183 points.

By looking at these stats, I think jumping at the chance to take a big name defensive player would be a mistake because of the small difference in point totals between the top players and the guys who will still be around at the end of the draft. Derrick Johnson is a little bit of a statistical anamoly though, as he has been a turnover machine since his Longhorn days. So let's take a look at Willis next to Barrett Ruud, the 21st linebacker on ESPN's list:

85 solo tackles = 85 points

33 assisted tackles = 16.5 points

2 sacks = 6 points

2 forced fumbles = 6 points

1 interception = 3 points

4 passes defended = 12 points

for a total of 128.5 points.

As can be determined from the numbers, Willis holds only a slight edge over a the 21st best linebacker in the league and in the league I'll be drafting IDPs in, there will probably be no need to drop this far down on the IDP list. Therefore, there doesn't seem to be much merit in jumping at the chance to draft a top ranked IDP early. Drafting depth at running back and wide receiver, and potentially even taking a little higher rated kicker or defense/special teams, would have more value than taking a top ranked IDP.